Tuesday, August 18, 2009

More football predictions...

As promised, and admittedly a week or so later than I would have liked, I have finally managed to dust off the crystal ball and to come up with my predictions for the forthcoming Premier League season.

But before I give you my predicted final placings, I thought it would be appropriate to write a little about each team to demonstrate my thinking. I doing so, I have broken the twenty clubs down into four groups, the Lancastrians, the Midlanders, the Londoners and the Odds and Sods.

As I noted at the end of last season, teams based in Lancashire now constitute 40% of the Premier League. However, I see this season as being something of a variation on the theme of the Curate’s Egg for the Red Rose members, with some enjoying good, successful seasons and the others potentially toiling to avoid being drawn in to the relegation dog-fight. Amongst the former, of course are Manchester United and Liverpool, both of which I expect to find in the top four next May. That said, unlike many pundits (most of whom it seems to me actually played for the club!) I do not subscribe to the theory that this will be Liverpool’s season to lift the trophy. I think that the combination of the loss of Alonso and the presence of stronger teams will see that particular Holy Grail remain out of their reach for yet another year. Manchester United, on the other hand, have an unparalleled record of success in this competition in recent years and will doubtless go very close to winning it again.

United’s opponents from across Manchester, with the bounty of Sheikh Croesus behind them will also have a very good season. Quite whether that will translate into a top-four position, I am not sure, because whilst they have more strikers than Bob Crow, they look a little short in defence to me, which will always make them vulnerable to conceding goals in a way that the top four simply don’t do.

Everton will also have a good season and I expect them to qualify for the Europa League, or whatever it will be called by then, particularly if they manage to fend off the predations of Man City and hold on to Joleon Lescott.

Moving on to the other Lancastrians, I fear that newly promoted Burnley will be returning whence they came, irrespective of their putting up a good fight to retain their status. They simply do not have the team or resources to survive: sad, but true. Meanwhile, their closest neighbours and fiercest rivals, Blackburn Rovers should be well enough equipped to secure a respectable mid-table finish, given the managerial skills of Sam Allardyce. Ditto Bolton Wanderers under Gary Megson; but I have a sneaking feeling that Wigan could find this season tough going, having lost an inspirational manager in Steve Bruce and a couple of important players.

Of the Midlanders, it will not surprise any of you to learn that I expect Aston Villa to lead their particular pack. However, shorn of Gareth Barry and with their one expensive summer signing (Downing) not expected to be fit until the New Year, I doubt that they will perform as well as they did last term. Birmingham City will regard staying in the division this season as a success and I fully expect them to do so. I cannot, however say the same for Mick McCarthy’s Wolves, who I think are in danger of becoming another yo-yo club like West Brom: too good for the Championship and not good enough for the Premier League. Finally for this group, and stretching geographical boundaries to breaking point, I see Stoke City having a season similar to the one that they enjoyed last time: their home form will keep them up, together with the odd point or three they collect on their travels.

Turning to the Londoners, no one will be surprised to see that I think that both Chelsea and Arsenal will be in the top four at the end of the season. Chelsea in particular have not lost any of their marquee players (unlike their northern rivals) and must have an excellent chance of winning the League for the first time for a couple of seasons. Arsenal, meanwhile, under the shrewd, but irritating Arsene Wenger will probably just about pip Man City to fourth place – but only just. Tottenham will be a far better prospect under Harry Redknapp than they were this time last year under Juande Ramos. That said, I don’t see them squeezing into the Europa League places unless seventh place would be sufficient for them to do so. Whilst I don’t foresee any problems for them, I don’t see Fulham repeating their success of last season and a solid mid-table finish is the best they can hope for. West Ham, on the other hand, under the mercurial Zola could, repeat could, be this year’s surprise package; however their financial position could spoil what would have otherwise been a season of progress and achievement.

No relegation worries for the Londoners, then.

Sadly, I can’t say the same for all of the members of my final group, the Odds and Sods. I fear that Portsmouth could collapse both financially and in terms of their haemorrhaging players at an alarming rate. Unless their Sheikh gets his hand in his pocket and buys the club very, very soon, I can hear the Pompey chimes ringing at Championship grounds in 2010-2011. Hull City, meanwhile will once again survive by the skin of their Tiger teeth, leaving Phil Brown a couple of shades lighter than his usual mahogany. Finally, Sunderland. I have a sneaking suspicion that this could be a breakthrough season for the Black Cats: they have a new, wealthy owner, an excellent manager in Steve Bruce and a squad recently reinforced by some quality players, such as Darren Bent. There will be no relegation worries at the Stadium of Light this year – far from it.

So, this is how I see the final league table next May:

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester Utd
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal

5. Manchester City
6. Everton
7. Spurs

8. Aston Villa
9. West Ham
10. Sunderland
11. Fulham
12. Blackburn Rovers
13. Bolton Wanderers
14. Stoke City
15. Wigan Athletic
16. Birmingham City
17. Hull City

18. Wolves
19. Portsmouth
20. Burnley

Will I be as successful with my predictions as I was last season?

We will find out next May and once again, I will hold myself up to potential ridicule by comparing those predictions with what really happened…


Island Hopper said...

I am thinking Burnley as this seasons Hull City. Small world on fire up to Christmas and then as squad depletion bites, a sustained slide and flirtation with disaster.

This Royal Throne of Kings said...

Island Hopper,

I have to say that after three games, they have six points more than I thought they would.

However, your comparison with Hull City is an apposite one - remember their win at The Emirates and going top of the Premier League?

That early success didn't save them from a very nervous last couple of games, and I suspect the same will apply to Burnley - only a little earlier in the season...